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The president is not seeking to introduce the measures through a full bill, as the legislative process in Congress could reduce their immediate political impact ahead of the elections.

Some factions within the government, especially the Ministry of Finance, are resisting more drastic measures. The Ministry of Finance, responsible for regulating sports betting and online gaming, understands the sector’s importance to the economy. Finance Minister Dario Durigan’s difficulty lies in convincing Lula that a well-regulated activity is important for public finances. Lula has said, in line with critics of the sector, that if it were up to him, he would end betting in Brazil.

The president’s critical view of betting is on par with other candidates. Studies by the Workers’ Party (PT) indicate that three out of four Brazilians are against betting establishments. This is the president’s justification against the sector.

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Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

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In court Friday, DOJ attorney Amber Dutton-Bynum argued that Scotts Valley could not meet the high threshold for irreparable harm required to secure an injunction. She maintained that the tribe knowingly chose to invest in the Preview Casino while its gaming status remained uncertain, as reported by Law360. Dutton-Bynum added that the modular buildings could easily be repurposed for non-gaming commercial uses if the prohibition stands.

Patrick Bergin, an attorney for Scotts Valley, rejected that argument, noting the difficulty of converting a site explicitly planned and built for gaming into something like an auto dealership.

Bergin also emphasized that the tribe had formally notified Interior twice about its launch timeline for the Preview Casino, providing regular progress updates without ever receiving a directive from federal officials to halt the project.